Oil becomes more expensive - gasoline becomes more expensive.
Oil becomes cheaper and gasoline becomes more expensive.
Gasoline is purposeful.
Be like gasoline.
Jokes aside, the story surrounding gasoline is indeed extremely interesting. And not only from a purely practical point of view - how much and when will it rise in price again, but also as a reflection of what is actually happening in Russia and the Russian economy, writes the analyst Vadim Zhartun, decided to find out what was happening with gasoline prices.
It is better to unwind this tangle from the end - from 2018, in which gasoline prices immediately increased by 11%. Of course, gasoline prices have risen before this (in 2014, 92nd cost 29.45 and now - 42.45), but never so sharply and for no apparent reason.
Ultimatum
Of course, the government is concerned about the price of gasoline. Not because he cares very much about the population, of course, but because, firstly, protests over pension reform have not yet died down (over 9 months, 2,154 protests took place in Russia, of which 46.5% were over retirement age), and, secondly, such a sharp increase does not in any way correspond to the officially declared inflation rate of 4% - serfs may suspect something and be indignant.
That gasoline prices are already being artificially restrained can be seen from what is happening to small wholesale buyers: discounts on fuel cards of cargo carriers are being cancelled, and wholesale prices in some cases are higher than retail prices.
In addition, starting next year, VAT will increase by 2%, which will automatically lead to an increase in prices by at least this amount. In addition, it was planned to raise the excise tax on gasoline, but this is now in question.
In general, the government went to the oil workers and politely asked what the matter was. Some media wrote: “Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak threatened / gave instructions / delivered an ultimatum to the oil workers,” but please don’t believe this nonsense.
There can be no talk of any ultimatums, and all these loud statements are just a cheesy comedy that is played out in front of us in order to hide what is really happening.
The oil workers, of course, quickly explained to the government what was happening. Firstly, you, gentlemen, officials, got too greedy - in the price of gasoline, only the mineral extraction tax, VAT and excise tax amount to 55%, and together with other taxes - at 65%. If you want cheap gasoline, curb your appetites and reduce excise taxes. Try to spend less on the security forces and don’t try to make the budget surplus for some reason.
Secondly, you are playing with geopolitics. For a long time, the ruble to dollar exchange rate, as if pegged, followed the price of a barrel of oil. Therefore, the cost of a barrel in rubles remained stable and fluctuated smoothly in the range from 3,000 to 4,000. Now, thanks to sanctions, the ruble has become untied from oil (that is, in fact, it has simply collapsed relative to it) and a barrel costs from 5,000 to 6,000 rubles. And if earlier the cost of a liter of gasoline was about 8 rubles, now it is all 16, and right now a liter of 92 should cost about 50 rubles.
The government mumbled something incomprehensible in response, but temporarily reduced the excise tax by 3 rubles, which is clearly not enough to compensate for the increase in costs. Another 5 had to be taken somewhere. Just like that, for philanthropic reasons, the oil workers, of course, did not agree to pay for this delta from their own pockets.
The government immediately began to look for at whose expense this could be accomplished if the people did not want to pay more and the oil workers did not want to receive less. I searched and, oddly enough, found it.
To be torn to pieces
For the temporary (until March 2019) withholding of fuel prices, the government decided to pay oil workers through independent gas station networks - essentially putting them in a hopeless situation and giving large oil companies the opportunity to acquire retail fuel for next to nothing - 15 out of 25 thousand gas stations in the country.
How this is done: since June 2018, the retail price of fuel at gas stations has been fixed, tied to the official inflation rate, and thereby limiting the margin of independent gas stations from above. And just the other day, the government banned traders from participating in exchange trading in gasoline - they say that it is because of them, the damned speculators, that prices are rising.
I won’t remind you how the USSR fought against speculators and what came of it. Here everything is even worse: the trader’s markup is mere pennies, incomparable with the fat chunk of taxes that the government takes for itself. But traders sell gasoline to independent gas stations in small quantities and with deferred payment. And if until now a gas station could (conditionally) take one tanker of fuel per month from a trader, sell it and pay off, now it will have to go to large refineries, which will say: take a railway tank and pay for it right away, and at exorbitant prices at that, because you, unlike a trader, are a small buyer.
It is clear that for many small networks this is like death - those who cannot find alternative suppliers and working capital will be forced to close.
In general, in the next six months a huge number of gas stations will change owners. Will this make us feel better? No, of course not. The market is monopolized and competitors are destroyed not in order to distribute gasoline to the population for next to nothing, but in order to make money from it. Therefore, when the redistribution of gas stations ends, prices will go up again.
The essence of the tax maneuver is simple: now the government takes a duty only on oil exported abroad, but wants to take it on all oil produced, which theoretically would allow revenues to the treasury to more than double, because 53% of Russian oil is consumed on the domestic market.
Therefore, over the course of several years, the export duty will decrease, and the mineral extraction tax rate, which is similar in formula and size, will increase.
Until now, export duties have helped keep domestic oil prices low. In fact, the domestic price of oil is equal to the Brent oil exchange quote minus $1.5-3 discounts per barrel for the lower quality of our oil, minus the export duty (about 9 rubles per kg) minus transportation costs (about 1 ruble per kg). Accordingly, if now 1 kg of oil on the international market costs 26 rubles, then on the domestic market it costs about 16 (but the price range is very wide).
If right now the export duty is simply replaced by the mineral extraction tax, then oil in Russia will cost 25 rubles, and gasoline - 62 rubles. To prevent this from happening, the government plans to compensate this difference to gasoline producers for the domestic market using a negative excise tax.
The question arises: why was it necessary to fence this whole garden if in the end nothing will change? Will change. And the answer to this question lies somewhere in the area of Russian imperial ambitions and nostalgia for the USSR.
Union
When the USSR collapsed, Russia clung in every possible way to its scattered fragments, trying to connect them, if not politically, then at least economically. As a result of these attempts, the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was born.
Among other things, this meant that Belarus could buy Russian oil without export duty, and then sell it to the West and pocket the difference between the price on the domestic and foreign markets. Of course, this regularly caused displeasure in Russia and attempts to somehow turn on this tap, returning income to its treasury.
In response, Father Lukashenko also regularly made wide eyes: “What about the union? We are brothers!” and blackmailed Russia by increasing transit tariffs.
In general, Russia had to choose: either pay for the illusion of having allies, or break this alliance. However, instead, she decided to take a third route - to solve the problem of tariff unification through a tax maneuver.
In fact, the idea was to return income from the re-export of Russian oil to Russia, regulate the resulting imbalance in the price of fuel with a negative excise tax, and even adjust it in such a way as to stimulate the development of modern oil refining industries in the country.
Complexity
The idea of robbing alliance partners is beautiful, no doubt about it. On paper. In practice, everything is somewhat more complicated. Let's start with the fact that the export duty itself was calculated relatively simply, using three different formulas depending on the average cost of oil on the world market.
With an oil price of $182.5 per ton ($24.9 per barrel), the formula for calculating the export duty looks like this:
EP = $29.2 + 30% * (C – $182.5)
Where C is the average oil price.
Taking into account the tax maneuver, the mineral extraction tax formula turned out to be this:
MET = 919 * Kts -
Difficult? But that is not all. Have you forgotten about the excise tax, which should compensate for the increase in the mineral extraction tax? Here is its formula:
Ans = ((Cneft * 7.3 - 182.5) * 0.3 + 29.2) * P * Spyu * Kcorr
Essentially, this is an inside-out export duty. R is the average exchange rate of the ruble, Kcorr synchronizes the simultaneous growth of the mineral extraction tax and the reduction of the export duty, and Spyu is the most important coefficient, which, in fact, determines what the amount of compensation will be and whether there will be any at all.
When calculating this coefficient, the real hell begins. I counted at least 19(!) variables on which it depends.
Total: if you are a domestic producer of petroleum products, then to make management decisions you need to keep in mind three dozen coefficients, each of which the government can change whenever it wishes.
And this extremely complex system of fine-tuning should work in conditions of instability, total unprofessionalism and corruption? Seriously?!
As soon as something changes in the market (the next sanctions, for example), the system will begin to become feverish. As soon as the government needs more money and tweaks a couple of coefficients, the system will begin to frenzy. As soon as some oil oligarch decides that he needs a bigger yacht and lobbies for adjustments that are beneficial to him, the system will begin to frenzy.
Simply put, it will always be in a fever, the entire industry will suffer from this and, first of all, small producers who will not be able to kick open the door of the Deputy Prime Minister and yell: “What have you done, you brute, again?!” Bring everything back to the damn mother!”
Simplicity
There are only 32 large oil refineries in Russia, owned by 16 companies. And in order to regulate their excise taxes, 30 coefficients are needed? For what?!
On the good side, we need to extremely simplify the formula for calculating the mineral extraction tax, abandon the stupid idea of negative excise taxes and allow the price of gasoline to come to the European level. According to official data, the share of gasoline in the consumer basket is less than 5% and the increase in its cost could be compensated to the population by reducing VAT or personal income tax.
Yes, it would hit someone harder, but there is at least some justice in this - those who use it should pay for gasoline. In addition, expensive gasoline will stimulate the use of public transport and the introduction of electric vehicles, which is beneficial both for the environment and for combating traffic jams.
However, simple solutions are for the smart. We will continue to pile dozens of coefficients on top of each other, and when they fail, we will rudely interfere with market mechanisms without really understanding how they work, and will only aggravate the situation.
Results
As a result of the tax maneuver, players of the scale of Rosneft will receive windfall profits, and the rest will only be problems. It will not be possible to fully compensate for the rise in gasoline prices with such a complex system, even if the government really wants this, so there may well be periodic shortages of gasoline on the market with all the ensuing consequences.
Investment prospects for the industry in conditions of unpredictable taxation and permanent sanctions are also quite vague. What is the point of investing in the construction or modernization of a refinery if the tax environment is so unstable?
The only thing that is already clear is that this whole tax phantasmagoria is not capable of stopping the rise in gasoline prices, creates instability, threatens a potential gasoline shortage, slows down investment and stimulates corruption.
As Moskovsky Komsomolets reports, a slight slowdown in the growth of gasoline prices and even their fall () by a few kopecks is a phenomenon temporary. A little more than six months will pass, and from January 1, 2019, there will be a new increase in fuel prices. Moreover, the increase in gasoline prices could reach thirty percent.
The reason for this catastrophic jump is the increase in excise tax. What is it for? In order for the government to be able to collect almost one and a half trillion rubles and implement one of Vladimir Putin’s “May” decrees.
The Russian government has a plan. It provides for reducing the export duty on oil and its products to zero. At the same time, the mineral extraction tax (MET) will rise. As a result, the retail price of gasoline in Russia will be almost equal to the cost of fuel that exists in countries that do not have their own oil.
Now gasoline at Russian gas stations is cheaper than in a number of foreign countries. But by 2024 its price may increase by one and a half times. And then, at least in this respect, Russian drivers will not differ from their foreign colleagues. True, this difference will not exist without taking into account salaries. If we evaluate gasoline based on the purchasing power of the average Russian citizen (of course, without taking into account ministers, State Duma deputies, top managers of Rosneft, etc.), then... perhaps everyone should comment on this on their own.
Excise taxes on fuel
Now some details about the excise tax. According to Moskovsky Komsomolets, its size will rise from the existing 8 thousand rubles per ton to 12.3 thousand. True, the authorities swear that they will compensate for at least 10 percent of gasoline "". The compensation will be one thousand rubles per ton. Due to this, as the government promises, for car owners, the increase in excise taxes will be just a slight scare. It was previously reported that, on the contrary, the rise in gasoline prices was part of the government's measures to regulate the fuel market.
The Accounts Chamber published an opinion on the draft federal law “On the federal budget for 2019 and for the planning period of 2020 and 2021,” in which it came to the conclusion that immediately after the New Year, gasoline prices will rise sharply due to an increase in the excise tax on fuel. From January 1, 2019, the excise tax on class 5 gasoline will rise from 8,213 to 12,374 rubles per ton (an increase of 49.9%), and on diesel fuel - from 5,665 rubles to 8,541 rubles per ton (an increase of about 66.3%).
“According to the Accounts Chamber, an increase in excise tax by 1.5 times from January 1, 2019 may again lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices and require the adoption of additional compensatory and deterrent measures,” the Accounts Chamber document says. In addition, one of the reasons for a possible rise in gasoline prices next year may be an increase in the VAT rate to 20% -
The Association of Independent Oil Traders “Sibir-GSM” suggests that the cost of a liter of gasoline may even rise by 4.4 rubles.
“Starting January 2019, we have changes to the Tax Code - not only excise taxes, but also VAT. Since both indirect taxes - the one that is included in the price - are passed on to the consumer. If we simply take these figures mathematically: about 4 thousand per ton of gasoline is an increase in the excise tax rate, plus 2% VAT, then this gives a potential for growth of 4.5 rubles. But this does not mean at all that gasoline will rise in price by this amount, since the government is developing measures. We cannot yet predict whether compensatory measures will be taken for oil companies in the form of a reverse excise tax. Here, not only these criteria should be taken into account (VAT and excise taxes. - Ed.), but also political, administrative pressure and so on. In our country, not only under the influence of economic reasons, the price changes both up and down. But purely mathematically, this is plus 4 rubles 40 kopecks,” Yulia Zolotovskaya, head of the Association of Independent Oil Traders “Sibir-GSM”, told NGS.
Oil traders note that today the price of gasoline is more influenced not by tax rates, but by the situation in the domestic market, however, increases in excise duty and VAT can be smoothed out with the help of deterrent measures, the need for which was spoken by the Accounts Chamber.
At the same time, gas station representatives believe that the price of gasoline will rise even before the New Year.
“I don’t agree with what they’ve been saying since January 1, I think it was earlier. Oil companies are not raising prices solely because they promised the president not to raise prices. And wholesale prices - they didn’t make promises, they are growing by leaps and bounds. Plus, there is a colossal shortage of petroleum products on the Russian market. In Novosibirsk we don’t have, one might say, small-scale wholesale sales of diesel fuel, there is no 92, and there are also interruptions with 95. Our gas stations have already stopped several times for several hours. It is profitable to sell abroad first.<...>Today, in addition to the shortage, there is a problem that winter diesel fuel is sold on the stock exchange at such a price that if we buy it, we will be forced to set the price for it at least 5-6 rubles more expensive. The entrance price will be more than 50 rubles. There are objective things - an increase in excise taxes and VAT, which can be smoothed out due to the fact that we will begin to sell more gasoline on the domestic market,” explained Gennady Pankeyev, co-owner of the Prime gas station chain (formerly Sibneft).
As an example of a forced rise in prices, experts cite the St. Petersburg Fuel Company. Since October 9, PTK has set the price for diesel fuel at about 50 rubles. According to Yulia Zolotovskaya, PTK explained the increase by saying that this is the price that “allows you to buy diesel fuel from an oil company, make a markup that allows you to pay wages to employees and taxes to the budget, and sell this product without a loss. All other diesel fuel markets are now operating in the red.
“Since August 1, the wholesale purchase price for diesel fuel has increased by almost 15%, breaking the historical maximum of this year,
despite the fact that the sale of winter varieties has not yet begun. All this time, we have been restraining the proportional increase in the cost of fuel at our gas stations in the interests of motorists. At the moment, the marginality of diesel fuel sales has become persistently negative, which is why we are forced to increase prices at gas stations in order to fulfill our main task - to maintain a high level of fuel quality,” says the news on the PTK website on behalf of General Director Igor Povoroznyuk .
Despite the sharp rise in prices, experts believe that Novosibirsk residents will not completely abandon cars in favor of public transport, although they noted that the amount of the check has begun to decrease noticeably.
“The bill has fallen this year, I can’t say the exact percentage, but it’s clear that people started filling up less with gasoline and apparently started driving less. They will travel even less. They will never stop completely, because some people have such a job. What will he do about it,” says Pankeev.
If the increase does occur, taxi drivers and their clients will be among the first to feel it. The director of the Leader taxi, Vyacheslav Shevchenko, suggests that rising gasoline prices will force drivers to switch to gas.
He does not exclude that the cost of travel may rise along with gasoline, but, in his opinion, the number of taxi drivers will not decrease.
“Fuel prices are constantly rising, but this does not mean there are fewer taxi drivers, and prices also, you notice, are not rising. It’s just that many people are tightening their belts. Switching to gas. It’s not the increase itself that will force them - in principle, they are slowly switching to gas. This will be an additional, but not significant, impetus, because the installation of gas equipment itself is quite expensive. I don’t think there will be fewer people who install applications and earn extra money; they often pick up an order on the way to work or home. He still has to go to work, he can at least earn enough to buy gas. (Editor's note: What will happen if the price nevertheless rises by 4 rubles due to excise taxes and VAT?) If it increases by 4 rubles, this may cause an outflow of taxi drivers. Then the situation will settle down on its own: there will be an outflow - the tariff will become a little more expensive, and people will again find it profitable [to work in a taxi]. While there are no plans to increase tariffs, it will be visible operationally,” Shevchenko predicts.
The desire to refrain from traveling by car, according to Zolotovskaya, arises before every major price increase, but this does not stop consumers. “It seems to me that one and a half to two years ago, when the price was below 40 rubles, they talked about the figure 40 in exactly the same way. But, it feels like there are no fewer cars on the roads. How and when a currency jump occurs: at first they don’t buy it, they refrain because it is purely psychologically difficult to spend more, but over time they get used to such values,” summed up Yulia Zolotovskaya.
The measures are being implemented by the government. We are talking about adjusting the parameters of the so-called “tax maneuver” for oil companies, which should allow them to receive more benefits in 2019 and thereby not increase prices.
The corresponding bill, on behalf of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, was jointly developed in several ministries, including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy. As the site learned from sources in departments, the document was submitted to the government for consideration - its approval will become a pure formality. But this does not mean that they will remain the same.
Raw materials - to Russia, prices are lower
Industry participants have been waiting for such a decision since the government fixed gasoline prices at the May level after more than 10 percent growth in a month. This decision was preceded by numerous complaints from motorists that were received by President Vladimir Putin during the next “Direct Line”. It was obvious that the price freeze would not last forever and that subsidies to the oil refining industry alone, for which 1 trillion rubles were allocated in 2017 alone, could not solve the problem. The logical solution was to carry out a “tax maneuver”.
Initially, as the head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union, Grigory Bazhenov, clarified in a conversation with the site, the maneuver involved zeroing out the export duty on oil and petroleum products by 2024, as well as increasing the tax on mineral extraction and simultaneous. But against the backdrop of fuel prices continuing to rise, the government decided to make concessions and also reduce the budget’s dependence on external conditions.
According to the text of the document, the innovation involves reducing the base price of motor fuel from 56 thousand rubles. per ton up to 50.4 thousand rubles. per ton for gasoline, as well as from 50 thousand rubles. per ton up to 45 thousand rubles. per ton for diesel fuel. To receive subsidies, companies must not allow the wholesale price to deviate from the “baseline values” by more than 10%.
To prevent the overwhelming amount of Russian raw materials from being exported, the document suggests that producers should send at least 17.5% of all oil produced exclusively to Russian oil refineries. Separately, the government decided to support the Far Eastern Federal District - to prevent a deterioration in the region’s oil product supply, it developed its own compensation mechanism.
According to Bazhenov, the maneuver is carried out only in the interests of the budget and provides for “not the most successful levers for boosting the sector’s economy - damping mechanisms.” As for the retail sector, one should not expect a noticeable positive impact on it, a representative of the Independent Fuel Union is sure.
“Dampers are being introduced so as not to destroy the profitability of oil refining due to an increase in excise tax,” the expert explained. “According to the authors’ idea, they will simultaneously fill the budget through excise taxes, and, through subsidies and compensation, will provide the refinery with the opportunity to earn money. At the same time, no thought was given to the impact on the retail sector. Therefore, the current parameters of the maneuver will not have any positive impact on the independent fuel retail sector. Margins will continue to be near zero, independent players will continue to suffer losses and leave the market. And when the supply of a product decreases, its price inevitably rises.”
Why will fuel prices still go up?
The experts interviewed believe that there are more than enough prerequisites for a further increase in fuel prices. These include an increase in excise tax, an increase in the VAT rate, as well as a gradual transition to winter diesel fuel, which is more expensive.
This opinion, in particular, is shared by the Independent Fuel Union, where they drew attention to the fact that diesel has already begun to rise in price. “Winter diesel fuel is sold on the wholesale exchange at 46.7 rubles/liter, AI-92 - 41.7 rubles/liter, and AI-95 - 45.5 rubles/liter,” said a representative of the union. — Retail and wholesale prices are approximately at the same level. At the same time, a number of retail chains have already increased prices for diesel fuel to 50 rubles/liter (for example, PTK and Shell). If prices are not raised, independent players will suffer losses and leave the market. Accordingly, supply compression will begin, which in turn will push prices up even more. This problem cannot be solved by tax maneuver. Therefore, we expect another price jump by the end of the year. Most likely, it will be less than May, but plus 2-3 rubles is a completely realistic scenario.”
First of all, the rise in price will affect diesel fuel, says Oleg Ashikhmin, president of the Oil Club. “There are already problems with summer diesel fuel, and from October the whole country will begin to switch to winter diesel fuel, which costs 5 thousand rubles per ton more on the stock exchange. That is, independent gas stations are already operating at a loss, and in winter they will lose even more if they do not raise prices. To prevent this, we need to fill the market with petroleum products. But it is still not profitable for oil companies to supply them to the domestic market - they can earn much more by exporting. Maintaining excise taxes at the current level would help reduce prices on the wholesale market. So, they want to compensate oil companies for their costs, but why, if you can simply not raise excise taxes,” the expert explained.
The tax maneuver will only partially contain prices, predicts Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the Veta expert group. He is convinced that the price of a liter of 95-grade gasoline will rise to 47.5 rubles by the end of the year, and in the second quarter of 2019 will exceed 50 rubles per liter.
“The increase still happens because the gasoline market is controlled by large refineries, which can raise prices at the same time, without agreement: they have been accustomed to doing this for years,” Zharsky said on the website. — The tax maneuver in its current version will be beneficial to companies with a high depth of oil refining, and is indifferent to companies with a low depth of oil refining. Therefore, theoretically, it will stimulate investment in oil refining - but this is a very long trend, for decades. Targeted activity of the FAS in this matter could be more effective than a tax maneuver.”
The implementation of the tax maneuver can lead to the implementation of two possible scenarios, says Sergei Zvenigorodsky, an expert at SOLID Management Management Company. The first is an increase in domestic retail fuel prices to European levels, that is, to 65-75 rubles per liter within one and a half to two years after the completion of the tax maneuver. The second is an adjustment to the current theoretical model and “the return of the firm but generous hand of the state to the market.”
“In any case, we expect a rise in prices, it all depends on how fast and strong it will be. Most likely, by the beginning of next year the price freeze will come to an end, and the price per liter of AI-95 will creep up, to 48-49 rubles by the second quarter,” the expert suggested.
The FAS did not respond to the website’s request regarding the impact of the measures taken on retail fuel prices by the time of publication.
It became known that next year in Russia there will be an increase in the price of excise taxes, as a result of which the price of gasoline will increase. Experts talk about too high a rise in prices, but Anton Siluanov excludes the fact that there will be a sharp rise in prices.
According to information received from the Accounts Chamber, starting next year, the excise tax will be increased by 1.5 times, this in turn will entail an increase in fuel prices. If this happens, additional measures will need to be taken.
How much will gasoline prices go up?
Starting from January next year, the excise tax price on gasoline will be 12,374 rubles/ton, in this case, the price increase is +49.9%. The cost of diesel fuel will be 8,541 rubles/ton, the increase in price is +66.3%. As of today, it is equal to 8,213 rubles/ton and 5,665 rubles/ton.
Experts argue that gasoline will rise in price not only due to an increase in excise tax prices, but also due to an increase in VAT by 2%, which will ultimately amount to 20%. Therefore, there will not be a sharp rise in prices.
No races are planned. Despite the increase in excise taxes, starting from January 1 next year, we have a negative excise tax mechanism, which will be transferred to oil refining companies, as a result of which this increase in load will be compensated, the minister said.
Some time ago, Alexander Novakov said that gasoline and diesel fuel would rise in price at the rate of inflation. The government has a method that will regulate rising prices for excise taxes and other factors that affect the cost of fuel.
The Russian authorities will do everything possible to prevent a sharp rise in prices; this could lead to discontent among the population. Prices can be contained through compensation payments to refineries. Thus, experts suggest that next year you will have to pay 3 or 4 rubles more for 1 liter of fuel. more expensive than now.
The Accounts Chamber talks about a new jump in retail gasoline prices. Auditors believe that the reason may be another increase in excise taxes on fuel from January 1, 2019.
“An increase in the excise tax by 1.5 times from January 1, 2019 may again lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices and require the adoption of additional compensatory and deterrent measures,” says the Accounts Chamber in its conclusion on the draft budget for 2019-2021.
In an unfavorable scenario, additional measures will need to be taken. It should be recalled that in the summer the authorities said that from January next year the excise tax on diesel fuel and gasoline would rise by 2.7 thousand rubles. and 3.7 thousand rubles. per ton.
Motor fuel prices were supposed to increase this year, starting from July 1 by 700 rubles, which would ultimately amount to 11,892 thousand per 1 ton of gasoline and 8,258 thousand rubles per 1 ton of diesel fuel. But in the spring there was a sharp increase in prices for petroleum products, as a result of which the price of fuel at gas stations exceeded 40 rubles. for 1 liter, there are regions where the price was 50 rubles. per liter
To prevent an increase in retail prices, Dmitry Kozak, who is the Deputy Prime Minister for the Fuel and Energy Complex, had to independently negotiate with the oil industry. As a result, instead of maintaining prices, they were reduced by 3,000 rubles for gasoline and by 2,000 rubles for diesel fuel. Only this helped stabilize the situation, but nevertheless there was no significant reduction.
The Accounts Chamber noted that the reduction in excise taxes on gasoline made it possible to slightly reduce retail prices by 0.2%. But this is not enough to compensate for rising prices.
Some time ago, independent sellers as well as representatives of Rostopliv said that an increase in gasoline prices was inevitable.
The authorities claim that they will do everything possible to prevent a serious increase in retail prices.
